Here we have it. With Spring Training game getting under
way, here are my rankings for the 2012 season. A lot could happen over the next
month before Opening Day, but as of right now this is how I see them stacking
up. I think the World Series champion will come from teams 1-14. There is a
strong top six in the American League, and then after the Phillies in the
National League it’s a wide open race.
1. New York Yankees
- They
already had a dynamic offense and people kept saying the only thing they need
to fix is their pitching staff. They robbed the Mariners blind by giving them a
decent designated hitter in return for a top of the rotation starter in Michael
Pineda. C.C. Sabathia and Ivan Nova, along with Pineda, will give the Yankees a
solid top three. Hiroki Kuroda is a solid four and then they have depth with Phil
Hughes and Freddy Garcia. There are absolutely no questions in the field. Curtis
Granderson, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez are an
absolutely ridiculous 1-5. This team is complete and will win at least 95 games
and more than likely the toughest division in baseball.
2. Detroit Tigers
- This is a
great team but it helps that they are in one of the weaker divisions in
baseball. They’re going to rack up wins against the Twins, White Sox and maybe
even Royals and Indians. They will probably have the second or third best
offense in the league behind the Yankees and Rangers. You can’t argue that
Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder are the best three-four tandem in baseball.
They have nice pieces around them with a still developing Austin Jackson,
Jhonny Peralta, Delmon Young and up-and-coming Brennan Boesch. They also have a
deep rotation starting with ace Justin Verlander. The addition of Doug Fister
helped them down the stretch last season and in the playoffs. Max Scherzer,
Rick Porcello and rookie Jacob Turner will complete a great staff. This team
will easily win the Central division and 95-plus games.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
- Even though
I believe this team has lost a lot of its luster and is in a decline mode, you
can’t argue that a team with three aces doesn’t belong at the top. Roy
Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels alone will be enough to help them win 60
games. I’m worried about the rest of the rotation. I don’t have confidence in
Joe Blanton and we’ll see how well Vance Worley does his second time through
the league. I think they end up finding a way to make a move to deepen this
rotation in case of an injury to the top three. Their offense doesn’t scare me near
the way it used to. Chase Utley still has the prettiest swing in baseball but
his knees are failing him. Jimmy Rollins is holding on to his glory days and
getting paid for them, but is not the MVP he once was. That image of Ryan
Howard going down in the final out of Game 5 is still vivid in my memory. I
don’t see how he could come back from that any time soon and be productive.
Hunter Pence will be a solid addition to the team for an entire season and this
is still an above average offense that really only needs to be average for
their pitching staff to win. As usual I think they let the Braves hang around
for a while and IF their top three pitchers stay healthy they’ll win 95 games
and the NL East.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
- I’m not
sure how the Rays keep on doing it, but they are finding ways to get it done
and building a strong team for the future every season. They have one of the
best and deepest pitching staffs in the game led by James Shields and David
Price. Behind them you have 2011 AL Rookie of the Year Jeremy Hellickson and
2012 Rookie of the Year candidate Matt Moore. I watched Moore pitch Game 1 of
the ALDS so I believe all the hype. This kid is going to be good. As usual this
offense isn’t going to jump out at you. With Even Longoria healthy for a full
season and Desmond Jennings up with the team all season, they’ll be able to
score some runs for their pitchers. Carlos Pena back in Tampa will give them
some pop in the middle of the order. B.J. Upton might wake up and put up a big
year in his walk year. They have other nice pieces like Ben Zobrist that fit
the mold of this team. They play in a difficult division so wins will be hard
to come by. I think they easily take the wild card and win at least 93 games.
5. Los Angeles Angels
- This team
by far had the best off season and many may not remember but they were knocking
on the door of the Texas Rangers late last year before falling off. Mike
Sciosia is one of the best managers in the game and he’ll find ways to put up
runs around Albert Pujols. Players like Peter Bourjos, Howie Kendrick and Erick
Aybar will be responsible for getting on base and setting up Pujols, Tori
Hunter and Vernon Wells for RBI opportunities. This team won’t be built on
offense though, it will rely on their pitching staff to win the division. Dan
Haren and Jered Weaver will lead the rotation, while C.J. Wilson and Ervin
Santana are nice two-three type pitchers. After that their depth isn’t great,
but it’s better than Texas, to me. They’ll finish with 93 wins and just edge
out the Rangers for the division. It will be a good battle all summer long and
for years to come.
6. Atlanta Braves
- Go ahead
and call me a homer. This team was the fourth best team in baseball for three
quarters of 2011. Everybody healthy, there is no doubt this is the second best
team in the National League. But there is a long list of questions surrounding
the Braves. Jason Heyward has to be an MVP candidate and solidify his spot in
the three hole for this team to win. Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens have to
stay healthy and be the aces of this staff. Really, even if just those things
happen this team will be great. But if Brian McCann and Martin Prado rebound
offensively and Dan Uggla doesn’t start off slow, this team could easily
compete for the NL East. They’re pitching depth is unbelievable and now most of
the youngsters have had experience in the majors. A full year of Bourn will
only help improve an offense that is atrocious on the base paths. Mix all that
with the best bullpen in baseball and there is no reason why this team can’t
win 94 games this season and compete for the division title.
7. St. Louis Cardinals
- This team
made one of the boldest moves in all of baseball by letting the greatest player
in the game walk away. And I believe they made the right choice for the future
of the franchise. There are a lot of question marks with this club, but I think
they play in a very winnable division and I don’t get the sense any team made
major improvements to pass them. I think Adam Wainwright coming back is more
important than Albert Pujols coming back. I’d rather have a Cy Young candidate
than an MVP candidate. Chris Carpenter will pair along with Wainwright for a
solid 1-2 punch. Jamie Garcia, Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook are solid number
three starters. This rotation is deep and has Kyle McClellan and Lance Lynn to
call on if anything goes wrong. IF this offense is healthy it’s a very good
offense that will score enough runs for these pitchers. I think they win the NL
Central with 93 wins.
8. Boston Red Sox
- I’m not a
big fan of the Red Sox this season. Maybe it’s because I’ve never been a huge
fan of Bobby Valentine from when he was a Met, but I just don’t like what
happened last year and I have no reason to feel like that situation will be
improved this season. Carl Crawford may not start the season with the team and
when he does come back he’ll just be pressing even harder to get rid of last
season’s below average totals. Their lineup is still solid with Adrian
Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia and Jacoby Ellsbury. They have a HUGE
hole at shortstop. You’re not going to win a championship or the AL East with
Nick Punto as your shortstop. Expect that to change soon. Their rotation is the
reason I don’t see them being a contender this season. They only have one true
ace in Jon Leseter. It’s an even numbered year so I don’t expect much out of
Becket. The rest of the rotation is just an embarrassment. This team is good,
but they play in a tough division against teams that have far superior pitching
staffs. An 88-92 win season looks likely. And I think they miss the playoffs.
9. Texas Rangers
- I’m not
happy with what happened in the Rangers’ offseason. This team has made it to
the World Series two years in a row and it will be nearly impossible for that
to happen again. They let their ace go, who wasn’t much of an ace in the first
place, to a division rival. They put all their eggs into one basket by going
after an unproven Japanese pitcher and they couldn’t find the money to go out
and get Prince Fielder. That being said, they still have the best offense in
the American League with Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz,
Adrian Beltre, Mike Napoli and Michael Young. Wow, almost named their entire
lineup. I think Yu Darvish will do fine in his first year as most Japanese
pitchers do, but I don’t believe he’ll been an ace and I’m fairly positive he
can’t carry a team through the playoffs. The rest of their pitching staff is
made up of threes and fours. That is not going to get it done in the playoffs
or against the Angels who are much improved on offense and in their pitching
staff, if that was even possible. Their offense will get them to 90 wins this
year, but they just won’t have enough pitching to compete with the Angels.
10. Arizona Diamondback
- This team
came out of nowhere last season to take the NL West crown, but came up just
short against the Brewers in the NLDS. They play in a tough division and it
will be very difficult to repeat this season. They’ve made some nice moves to
improve the pitching staff. I’m not sold on their offense outside of Justin
Upton. Everyone else in that lineup is an average or little better offensive
player. But you win in the West with your pitching and Ian Kennedy, Daniel
Hudson and Trevor Cahill give you a nice 1-3 punch. Joe Saunders and Josh
Collmenter are nice threes and fours. This team will be scrappy and find ways
to win as they did last year. As long as their pitching holds up I think
they’ll have a chance to win the division. They won it last year with 94 win, I
say they get it done this year with 92.
11. Milwaukee Brewers
- The
uncertainty of this team scares me. With Ryan Braun out for 50 games I’m not
sure there is a player on this offense that can carry them and keep them in it
until he returns. Aramis Ramirez was a nice pickup but he got off to a horribly
slow start last year and that can’t happen again if the Brewers hope to
compete. They probably have the best pitching staff in the division as Yovani
Gallardo is a true ace and should get Cy Young consideration. Zack Greinke and
Shaun Marcum are great number two starters. Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson are
solid four and five starters. They took their shot at it all last year and
failed. I’m not sure how many opportunities this group is going to have, but
they need to make it happen. This division has a solid three, but it’s still
winnable. Even with Braun being down, look for this team to win close to 90
games.
12. Los Angeles Dodgers
- Many people
forget this team was an above .500 ball club last year. They featured the Cy
Young and (Should have been) MVP. They still remain young and have filled in
some positions with stop gap type players. They are waiting for an owner to
take over the beloved franchise and whoever it is will have some deep pockets
to make this team become relevant sooner rather than later. Matt Kemp will lead
the charge again along with Andre Either and an offense that won’t put up huge
numbers but will score enough to win. Clayton Kershaw looks like he could be a
stud for the next 10 years or until that little arm falls off. Chad Billingsley
is a solid number two starter. Ted Lilly, Aaron Harang and Chris Capuano all
add depth and are very good three and four starters. Dee Gordon will add some
explosiveness to the top of the lineup and set up Kemp and Either with easy RBI
opportunities. They might not have enough to take over the Arizona Diamondbacks
this year, but look for them to be a major player this coming offseason and be
back at the top in 2013. I think they manage to win close to 90 games this
season and fall just short of the playoffs.
13. Cincinnati Reds
- After the
St. Louis Cardinals lost Albert Pujols and the Milwaukee Brewers couldn’t
resign Prince Fielder I thought this automatically opened up the door for the
Reds. But that doesn’t exactly seem to be the case. They picked up Matt Latos,
which was a great move, but do you really think he can transfer his great
numbers from pitcher friendly Petco Park to hitter friendly Great American
Ballpark? I don’t think so. Their pitching staff still isn’t better than the
Cardinals or the Brewers and their offense might not be much better either.
Joey Votto is an MVP candidate, Jay Bruce is on the verge of a breakout season
and Brandon Phillips is one of the best second baseman in the league. They
don’t have a true leadoff hitter and they are going to have to develop young
kids at shortstop and catcher during the season. I don’t think they’ve made
enough progress to pass the other two teams ahead of them in the division.
Anywhere from 83-88 wins seems logical.
14. San Francisco Giants
- Call me
crazy, but this team isn’t getting any younger, or better. They made the move
to get Pagan, which is a SLIGHT upgrade in center field. They traded away their
strength in pitching, giving up Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera. They’re
saving their money hoping to bring back Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, but who’s
going to score runs for these guys? When you’re best offensive player is a
catcher coming off a season-ending injury your expectations can’t be that high.
If one of their big pitchers goes down this is a mediocre ball club. That being
said, if healthy and the addition of a big bat come midseason, Carlos Quentin,
this team could become a serious contender. Once in the playoffs you know how
effective great pitching can be. I say they finish about the same as last year
with around 86 wins.
15. Washington Nationals
- Had they
gotten Prince Fielder they would have definitely been a team with a chance to
win it all, but now they’ll have to settle at looking to the future. It doesn’t
sound like Bryce Harper will begin the season with the club, which means they’re
OK with not winning this season. Their pitching staff has gotten tremendously
better with Stephan Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman atop the
rotation. They failed to make any moves to generate more offense and are left
with a big hole in center field. If they make the move for Denard Span they
become even more of a contender. They finished 80-81 last season and I expect
them to make a jump further this year winning 85 games or more.
16. Toronto Blue Jays
- I love this
team and they are always my favorite to uproot the Red Sox and Yankees in the
AL East. For some reason they haven’t been able to put it all together but they
are definitely moving in the right direction. They are solid on offense with
only left field being a question. Brett Lawrie is about to have a monster
rookie season and will be the future number three hitter in this lineup.
Scoring runs will not be a problem for this team. They have a solid ace in
Rickey Romero, but they don’t have that number two to make them a serious
contender. Brandon Morrow and Brett Cecil are threes and fours. If Kyle Drabek
can live up to his potential he could become that number two starter. The fact
is they are still the fourth best team in this very tough division. In almost
any other division they would have a chance to win it, but because of
unfortunate circumstances they’ll be lucky to finish with more than 82 wins.
17. Kansas City Royals
- Everybody
has been waiting for this team to breakout and they will continue to wait
another year. They are being very cautious with their top prospects and they
are not going to detriment their future by going for it now. They started out
hot last year before falling off. I think they continue that growth this year
will full seasons from Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. There are still
questions at shortstop and second base, but their offense will be much
improved. The pitching staff is still in question. Mike Montgomery hasn’t
progressed as they would have liked so they are still struggling to find an ace
from their top prospects. Johnathan Sanchez was a great pickup but I think he’s
at best a number two and possibly a number three on some teams. As soon as
their young pitchers develop they’ll be ready to contend. Hopefully they’ll get
a chance to do that in the big leagues at some point this year to set them up
for success in 2013. 80-plus wins would be a great improvement.
18. Colorado Rockies
- I really like what the Rockies have
done this offseason. Offense is not a problem for them and they know that, so
they went out and built depth in the pitching staff. While they haven’t
acquired a true ace, Jeremy Guthrie is not that ace, they have a solid group of
twos and threes and some potential prospects in Drew Pomeranz and Alex White
that could be ones and twos for years to come. Carlos Gonzalez, Troy
Tulowitzki, Michael Cuddyer and Todd Helton are a nice 2-5 in the order. If
Dexter Fowler figures it out this year they’ll have one of the best lineups in
the National League. While I like their pitching staff, they don’t have an
elite pitcher that can carry them and they play in a division filled with teams
that have a true ace, or aces. We all know what they can do if they’re close in
October, but their division is just too difficult. A .500 season would be great
for this team.
19. Miami Marlins
- Who really
knows what is going to happen with this team in 2011? They could potentially be
a 90 win team or a 75 win team. I don’t like what happened with Hanley Ramirez
and I do not believe his ego will be able to put up with Jose Reyes
outperforming him at his former position. Heath Bell doesn’t scare me at the
back end any more than Leo Nunez or whatever his real name is. And Mark Buehrle
is a nice number three, but he can’t be the ace of this staff until Josh
Johnson is ready or if he goes down again. Their offense is going to be amazing
and put up huge numbers. But I don’t believe this pitching staff will hold up
and they will ultimately fall apart. Look for the Marlins to be in the
spotlight this season, but for all the wrong reasons. They’re the fourth best team
in this division.
20. Cleveland Indians
- This team
surprised a lot of people last year getting out to a hot start. They were
winning games late and players were overachieving. Over 162 games, these types
of teams usually show their true colors. While 80 wins is nothing to go home
crying about, they’ll need to find a way to win 15 more to be atop the division
this year and I don’t think they’ve done enough to make that happen. They’re
hoping Shin-Soo Choo has a bounce-back year, Grady Siezmore stays on the field
and is the great player he used to be and that Ubaldo Jimenez is the Cy Young
candidate he was at the beginning of 2010. I don’t believe any of those will
happen. This team is good and will compete in a weak division, but another 80
win season is likely.
21. White Sox
- While one
team in Chicago is moving in a positive direction, the other one is going in
the opposite direction. Who knows what the White Sox were up to in the
offseason? At first you think they’re rebuilding, then they lock up John Danks
instead of trading him and now you have no idea what’s going on. There are too
many question marks on this team to make them a contender. Adam Dunn, Alex Rios
and Gordon Beckham need to improve. I think we know what Alexi Rameriez and
Paul Konerko are going to do and that’s nice production. Some of the young kids
will have to grow up quick if this team is going to fight for the division or
wild card. They have a nice group of pitchers, but Danks is not an ace to me
and Peavy is another huge question mark. Gavin Floyd and Phillip Humber are
nice threes and fours and I guess we’ll see how Chris Sale transitions to the
starting pitching role. I’m not high on pitchers making that move, but it has
been known to work recently, most notably with Texas Rangers’ pitchers. This
team has the potential to be a .500 or better ball club but I also see them
having a chance to collapse and end up with less than 80 wins.
22. Chicago Cubs
- I’m also
not as down on the Cubs as everybody else is. The offense is lacking a power
hitter, but have some decent hitters with Castro, Byrd and Barney. But their
pitching rotation is deep. Garza and Dempster are true number twos, with Garza
having the ability to be a number one. Volstad, Maholm, Wood and Wells are all
potential number threes. This team is definitely rebuilding under Theo Epstein,
but they’ll improve upon their 71 wins last season and bump it up closer to 78.
23. Pittsburgh Pirates
- The magical
run they had at the beginning of last year will all be forgotten after this
season. There has been nothing done to improve this team. They are just hoping
their talent will develop into what it should be and that Clint Hurdle will
sneak a few wins. There are three teams easily better than them in this
division so I don’t see them competing. McCutchen and Walker are stars, Pedro
Alvarez is looking more-and-more like a bust and their rotation doesn’t scare
anybody. I don’t believe in Morton, and Lincoln and McDonald aren’t as good as
hyped. McDonald could easily be there number one but is a decent number two on
most teams. Hurdle will have the troops fired up come day one, but they’ll fall
of at the end and experience another losing season with about the same season
as last year.
24. Minnesota Twins
Let’s just go
ahead and take Morneau and Maur out of the picture because we have no idea what
they’re capable of at this point. Obviously if healthy they are some of the
best at their position, but you can’t count on that anymore. Their outfield is
nice with Revere, Span and the addition of Willingham to add some pop. The
infield is suspect and nothing that will impress you. Their rotation is a mess.
Liranio is off and on, Pavano is mostly off and the rest are 12 to 13 game
winners. Their youngest starting pitcher is 28. This team is heading in the wrong
direction in a division that’s winnable, or at least was until the Tigers
signed Prince. Ron Gardenhire will find a way to win 70 games, but he’ll
struggle in doing so.
25. Seattle Mariners
- Another AL
West team that will just get pounded by the two-headed monster in Texas and LA
Angels. The Mariners do have a true number one and a formidable middle of the
lineup with Ichiro, Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero. And that’s
if you believe in Montero, I don’t. After that there is a big drop off in
offensive production. Almost as big as the drop off between King Felix and
Justin Varges in their rotation. Why they traded Michael Pineda I have no idea.
It was a very dumb trade in my opinion. The middle of their lineup is set for
years to come, they just need their young pitching talent, like Pineda was, to
start becoming one’s and two’s and this team will compete. But they are still
far away from that. A 70 to 75 win season seems doable.
26. San Diego Padres
- I’m not
sure what the Padres’ front office is trying to do. They’re trying to rebuild
but yet they bring in a guy like Carlos Quentin to play left field. I’m
guessing they’ll use him as trade bait at the deadline when they’re out of it.
I think Cameron Maybin is set to have a breakout year in center. Jason Bartlett,
Nick Hundley, The O-Dawg and Chase Headly are exactly the types of players that
fit this low scoring offense. Their starting pitching and bullpen will keep
them in games, but they don’t have the fire power to win the close ones.
They’ll putter along and finish with close to 75 wins.
27. New York Mets
- The Mets
aren’t as bad as people are making them out to be, but they’re not very good
either. They have a formidable rotation with Mike Pelfrey, Jonathan Niese, R.A.
Dickey and Dillon Gee. But those are all number three starters on a normal
team. David Wight, Ike Davis and Jason Bay are their best hitters … not exactly
a potent offense. But they have decent pieces that will help them win some
games. If they break 70 wins again this year Terry Collins should get the
Manager of the Year award.
28. Baltimore Orioles
- I’m actually
like the O’s, but with the division they play in it’s going to be hard to win
more than 80 games. I like Markakis, Jones, Hardy, Wieters and Reynolds. I
think they’ll put up some runs. The rotation can’t compete with the other NL
East teams though. If Matusz, Britton and/or Arrieta become a top of the
rotation starter they’ll be good in a couple of years. 73 wins would be an
accomplishment for the O’s this year.
29. Oakland Athletics
- I look at
the A’s lineup and it exemplifies exactly what “Moneyball” means. They’ve
maneuvered their way into putting decent talent at every position in a cost
effective way. But in today’s world, you get what you pay for. If you by
mediocre talent you’ll get mediocre results. I like their outfield with Coco
Crisp, Seth Smith and Josh Reddick. Jemile Weeks is an up-and-coming second
baseman and Kurt Suzuki is a nice catcher. They have young arms as always, but
they aren’t ready yet. They will struggle to get 70 wins this year.
30. Houston Astros
- You look at
the Astros lineup and you say, “Who are these people?” Normally any casual
baseball fan can look at a lineup and recognize several players, but I even
find myself struggling to even say some of these names. Jed Lowrie, Jordan Schafer
and Carlos Lee are the only names you’ll recognize offensively. Their young
players will need to improve quickly and luckily they did get a lot of
opportunities last year while the Astros were putting up the worst record in
the league. Their pitching staff is deep, but unless Jordan Lyles becomes a top
of the rotation pitcher, they are mostly a bunch of three’s and four’s. They’ll
win more than 56 games, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they stayed around that
number.
Hope you guys enjoyed the rankings. I plan on posting my
predictions for the season closer to Opening Day.
